Devlin Stone's army is raiding Murphrid in an effort to gather intelligence about Word of Blake defenses in the area.Initial declarations:
- Stone's Army will arrive in Operational Round 1
- Top Level Units: elements of Stone's Commandos, elements of Stone's Hellcats, The Belle Lee Express.
- Operational Intensity: Raid
DSA does not attempt pirate insertion.
Raid Defense Roll [blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 2, 2, total 4[/blockquote]
Op Round 1 DSA Initiative [blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 5, 6, total 11[/blockquote]
Op Round 1 WOB Initiative [blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 1, 2, total 3[/blockquote]
Raid defense results:
- Aerospace units may not be deployed against the raiding force
- Ground response is capped at 75% of the raider's FP
- The raiding force receives a +2 initiative bonus
The initiative bonus raises DSA's roll to a 13, so they definitely win initiative.
DSA Operational Round 1 orders
Jump Point: Landing -- The Belle Lee Express. Advance to Atmo/Orbit -- elements of Stone's Hellcats. No Orders -- elements of Stone's Commandos.
Atmo/Orbit: No units
Surface: No units
WOB Operational Round 1 orders
Jump Point: No units
Atmo/Orbit: No orders -- Blessed Fire III-pi
Surface: No orders -- Elements of WOB 14th Division, Elements of WOB 39th Division.
Since the raid defense roll prevented WOB from intercepting, no combat occurs.
Purely for the sake of example, lets pretend that WOB
could intercept, and issued different orders.
QuoteAlternate WOB Op Round 1 orders:
Jump Point: No units
Atmo/Orbit: Intercept -- elements of Blessed Fire III-pi, 2x medium ASF Level II (A+B), R/R 16 FP. No orders -- elements of Blessed Fire III-pi.
Surface: No orders -- Elements of WOB 14th Division, Elements of WOB 39th Division.
QuoteIn the alternate outcome, DSA is forced to initiate combat to prevent the interception. DSA commits elements of Stone's Hellcats to this task.
Defend -- elements of Stone's Hellcats (2x Light ASF Squadron, A+B, V/R, 12 FP)
WOB Simple Resolution roll [blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 1, 4, total 5[/blockquote]
DSA Simple Resolution roll [blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 4, 1, total 5[/blockquote]
QuoteAfter Action Summary
DSA committed 12 FP
WOB committed 16 FP
DSA lost 4 FP
WOB lost 3 FP
No units were destroyed
WOB Blessed Fire III-pi (Medium ASF Level III R/R) SURVIVES with 45 FP remaining
DSA elements of Stone's Hellcats (2x Light ASF squadrons, V/R) SURVIVES with 8 FP remaining
Total damage dealt this round: 7 FP
neither side has a critical opportunity
DSA scores 19 points
WOB scores 33 points
WOB decisive victory; DSA move orders are cancelled.
Victory Points (Atmo/Orbit theater): WOB 3, DSA 0
Neither side sustained enough damage to benefit from battlefield repair.
Had WOB rolled better on their raid defense roll, it appears things would have been much tougher for the DSA.
DSA Initiative, Op Round 2 [blockquote]Rolled 2d6+2 : 2, 1 + 2, total 5[/blockquote]
WOB Initiative, Op Round 2 [blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 1, 1, total 2[/blockquote]
DSA Orders, Op Round 2
Jump Point: No Units
Atmo/Orbit: Aerospace Support -- elements of Stone's Hellcats (2x Light ASF squadrons A+B, V/R, 12 FP), No Orders -- The Belle Lee Express
Surface: Recon Raid -- elements of Stone's Commandos (1x Light 'Mech Coy A, V/R, 14 FP)
WOB Orders, Op Round 2
Jump Point: No Units
Atmo/Orbit: No Orders -- Blessed Fire III-pi
Surface: Defense -- elements of WOB 14th Division (elements of 2x Medium 'Mech Level II A, R/R, 11 FP), No Orders - elements of WOB 14th Division, elements of WOB 39th Division.
Aerospace Support roll [blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 5, 6, total 11[/blockquote]
DSA Simple Resolution roll [blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 1, 3, total 4[/blockquote]
WOB Simple Resolution roll [blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 1, 4, total 5[/blockquote]
DSA Aerospace my contribute up to 60% of the enemy's FP (7 FP after rounding)
After-action report
DSA committed 14 FP + 7 FP of support
WOB committed 11 FP
DSA lost 3 FP
WOB lost 4 FP
No units were destroyed
WOB elements of 14th Division (Medium Level III, R/R 51 FP) SURVIVES with 47 FP
DSA elements of Stone's Commandos (Light Company A, V/R 14 FP) SURVIVES with 12 FP
DSA elements of Stone's Hellcats (2x Light Squadron A+B, V/R 12 FP) SURVIVES with 11 FP
Total Damage this Round: 7 FP
Neither side sustained enough damage to benefit from battlefield repair.
Neither side earned a critical event.
DSA scores 36 points
WOB scores 14 points
DSA Decisive Victory
Victory Points in this theater: DSA 3, WOB 0
Additionall, DSA learns the complete details of all units in the star system.
DSA Op Round 3 Initiative [blockquote]Rolled 2d6+2 : 1, 2 + 2, total 5[/blockquote]
WOB Op Round 3 Initiative [blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 1, 4, total 5[/blockquote]
Tiebreaker:
DSA[blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 4, 3, total 7[/blockquote]
WOB[blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 4, 3, total 7[/blockquote]
2nd Tiebreaker
DSA [blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 4, 5, total 9[/blockquote]
WOB [blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 1, 4, total 5[/blockquote]
Op Round 3 DSA Orders
Jump Point: No Units
Atmo/Orbit: Aerospace Support -- Elements of Stone's Hellcats (2x Light Squadron A+B, V/R 11 FP). No Orders -- The Belle Lee Express
Surface: Withdraw -- Elements of Stone's Commandos
Op Round 3 WOB Orders
Jump Point: No Units
Atmo/Orbit: No Orders -- Blessed Fire III-pi
Surface: Interception -- Elements of WOB 39th Division (part of 2x Assault 'Mech Level II B, R/R 8 FP). No Orders, Elements of WOB 14th Division, Elements of WOB 39th Division.
Lets also look at how this would have gone if the Raid Defense roll hadn't limited how much FP the WOB could have used.
QuoteOp Round 3 alternate WOB Orders
Jump Point: No Units
Atmo/Orbit: No Orders -- Blessed Fire III-pi
Surface: Interception -- Elements of WOB 39th Division (Assault 'Mech Level III, R/R 77 FP). No Orders, Elements of WOB 14th Division, Elements of WOB 39th Division.
Aerospace Support roll [blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 2, 1, total 3[/blockquote]
DSA Simple Resolution [blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 5, 3, total 8[/blockquote]
WOB Simple Resolution [blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 6, 4, total 10[/blockquote]
After Action ReportDSA commits 12 FP + 0 FP of aerospace support
WOB commits 8 FP
DSA loses 5 FP and will be disrupted next round.
WOB loses 6 FP
No units are destroyed
Elements of WOB 39th Division (Assault Level III, R/R 77 FP) recovers 1 FP from battlefield repair and SURVIVES with 72 FP
Elements of DSA Stone's Commands (Light 'Mech Coy A, V/R 14 FP) recovers 1 FP from battlefield repair and SURVIVES with 8 FP
Total Damage this Round: 11 FP
Both WOB and DSA may have earned critical events.
DSA scores 75 points
WOB scores 41 points
DSA marginal victory; DSA movement is not blocked
Victory Points in this theater: DSA 5, WOB 0.
QuoteAlternate Outcome
After Action Report
DSA commits 12 FP + 0 FP of aerospace support
WOB commits 77 FP
DSA loses 46 (12) FP and will be disrupted next round.
WOB loses 6 FP
Units Destroyed: DSA Stone's Commandos (Light 'Mech Coy A, V/R 14 FP)
Elements of WOB 39th Division (Assault Level III, R/R 77 FP) recovers 1 FP from battlefield repair and SURVIVES with 72 FP
Total Damage this Round: 18 FP
Both WOB and DSA may have earned critical events.
WOB scores 100 points
DSA scores 8 points
WOB decisive victory
Victory Points in this theater: WOB 3, DSA 2
DSA Critical Event Roll [blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 3, 1, total 4[/blockquote]
WOB Critical Event Roll [blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 5, 2, total 7[/blockquote]
No Critical Events.
DSA Op Round 4 Initiative [blockquote]Rolled 2d6+2 : 3, 1 + 2, total 6[/blockquote]
WOB Op Round 4 Initiative [blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 1, 5, total 6[/blockquote]
Tiebreaker
DSA [blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 1, 3, total 4[/blockquote]
WOB [blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 6, 5, total 11[/blockquote]
Op Round 4 WOB Orders
Jump Point: No Units
Atmo/Orbit: No Orders - Blessed Fire III-pi.
Surface: No Orders - elements of WOB 14th Division, elements of WOB 39th Division.
Op Round 4 DSA Orders
Jump Point: No Units
Atmo/Orbit: Withdraw to Jump Point -- The Belle Lee Express, Elements of Stone's Hellcats, Elements of Stone's Commandos.
Surface: No Units
No combat occurs in this operational round.
Op Round 5 DSA Initiative [blockquote]Rolled 2d6+2 : 6, 3 + 2, total 11[/blockquote]
Op Round 5 WOB Initiative [blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 5, 1, total 6[/blockquote]
Op Round 5 DSA Orders
Jump Point: Transit -- The Belle Lee Express (carrying elements of Stone's Hellcats and elements of Stone's Commandos)
Atmo/Orbit: No Orders
Surface: No Orders
Op Round 5 WOB Orders
Jump Point: No Units
Atmo/Orbit: No Orders - Blessed Fire III-pi.
Surface: No Orders - elements of WOB 14th Division, elements of WOB 39th Division.
The operation ends with WOB in control of the battlefield.
Potential salvage is: 18 RP
WOB Salvage roll [blockquote]Rolled 2d6 : 6, 4, total 10[/blockquote]
WOB recovers 40% (7 RP) of the potential salvage.
And now, the questions ;) Not ever having done an actual raid scenario, the questions are a plenty ;)
Looking at these threads, it becomes obvious that these elements are restricted to the original raid rolls equally thru all rounds and not per round which is something I did not suspect considering the length of combat.
Explain the scoring here, I thought scoring was based on the damage you do?
Quote from: Dave Baughman on December 01, 2010, 05:08:58 AM
QuoteAfter Action Summary
DSA committed 12 FP
WOB committed 16 FP
DSA lost 4 FP
WOB lost 3 FP
No units were destroyed
WOB Blessed Fire III-pi (Medium ASF Level III R/R) SURVIVES with 45 FP remaining
DSA elements of Stone's Hellcats (2x Light ASF squadrons, V/R) SURVIVES with 8 FP remaining
Total damage dealt this round: 7 FP
DSA scores 19 points
WOB scores 33 points
In the following scenario, the "Landing" force was still in Orbit/Atmo, by winning initiative, is the "Landing" move to Surface inlcuded in this? Because I thought that was type of movement / action was reserved for Airborne units. Opposed landings have been a major damage situation in the games thus far for dropships and units. DK explained this to me that units attempting to Land could be interecepted on the Ground, essentially a poor result on the rolls could make it too hazardous for the Dropships to Land just like opposing the move to Atmo. Once I read the rule on Interception, I began enforcing the Mid-Level unit restriction because I was initially facing full regiments opposing my landings.
Quote from: Dave Baughman on December 01, 2010, 05:13:39 AM
DSA Orders, Op Round 2
Jump Point: No Units
Atmo/Orbit: Aerospace Support -- elements of Stone's Hellcats (2x Light ASF squadrons A+B, V/R, 12 FP), No Orders -- The Belle Lee Express
Surface: Recon Raid -- elements of Stone's Commandos (1x Light 'Mech Coy A, V/R, 14 FP)
From the sequences listed, you're doing several rolls combined that I was doing seperate such as the Aero Support Roll at the same time as the Simple Resolution.
Also I was unaware that victory points were done by theater as shown in ths example.
I'm looking at the following, and was there a purpose to the Raid? Does the successful round of combat yeild a result, or just to have combat?
Quote from: Dave Baughman on December 01, 2010, 05:21:13 AM
DSA Aerospace my contribute up to 60% of the enemy's FP (7 FP after rounding)
After-action report
DSA committed 14 FP + 7 FP of support
WOB committed 11 FP
DSA lost 3 FP
WOB lost 4 FP
No units were destroyed
WOB elements of 14th Division (Medium Level III, R/R 51 FP) SURVIVES with 47 FP
DSA elements of Stone's Commandos (Light Company A, V/R 14 FP) SURVIVES with 12 FP
DSA elements of Stone's Hellcats (2x Light Squadron A+B, V/R 12 FP) SURVIVES with 11 FP
Total Damage this Round: 7 FP
Neither side sustained enough damage to benefit from battlefield repair.
Neither side earned a critical event.
DSA scores 36 points
WOB scores 14 points
DSA Decisive Victory
Victory Points in this theater: DSA 3, WOB 0
Additionall, DSA learns the complete details of all units in the star system.
I just wanted to verify that in regards to Salvage recovery, I was advised that the "Objective Raid" acquisition of the available Salvage is for a % of the actual salvage based on the standard damage roll chart, not the Curved Chart, and after the last rules clarification regarding critical events, I think we've been putting too much of the pool available because we've been including the potential salvage from the Raid Turn in the possible salvage picked up that round.
Quote from: Dave Baughman on December 01, 2010, 05:45:33 AM
WOB recovers 40% (7 RP) of the potential salvage.
Let me try and answer those questions. Fair warning, I have to write a paper for school tonight, so if this seems rushed I may be back later to expand further -- so followup questions are welcome.
Quote from: Fatebringer on December 01, 2010, 08:57:31 PM
And now, the questions ;) Not ever having done an actual raid scenario, the questions are a plenty ;)
Looking at these threads, it becomes obvious that these elements are restricted to the original raid rolls equally thru all rounds and not per round which is something I did not suspect considering the length of combat.
That's correct; the length of Raid operations is limited by other factors (specifically the prohibition on using more than one attack order in the Surface theater and the requirement to withdraw afterwards), but the trade-off is the chance to greatly compromise enemy defenses. In effect, it makes it much more survivable to use light 'Mechs in a raider role even if bigger enemy formations are present in the system.
Explain the scoring here, I thought scoring was based on the damage you do?
DSA did 3 points of damage to a 16 point formation, destroying 18.75%; this correlates to 19 points. Conversely, WOB did 4 points of damage to a 12-point formation, destroying 33.3...% -- 33 points.
In most combat scenarios, the score is equal to the percentage of the enemy force destroyed, though some have different rules.
This is laid out in the rules for the Battle order: "Scoring is equal to the percentage of enemy BV destroyed. (For example, if a player destroys 70% of the enemy's BV, that player's score is 70)."
Quote from: Dave Baughman on December 01, 2010, 05:08:58 AM
QuoteAfter Action Summary
DSA committed 12 FP
WOB committed 16 FP
DSA lost 4 FP
WOB lost 3 FP
No units were destroyed
WOB Blessed Fire III-pi (Medium ASF Level III R/R) SURVIVES with 45 FP remaining
DSA elements of Stone's Hellcats (2x Light ASF squadrons, V/R) SURVIVES with 8 FP remaining
Total damage dealt this round: 7 FP
DSA scores 19 points
WOB scores 33 points
In the following scenario, the "Landing" force was still in Orbit/Atmo, by winning initiative, is the "Landing" move to Surface inlcuded in this? Because I thought that was type of movement / action was reserved for Airborne units. Opposed landings have been a major damage situation in the games thus far for dropships and units. DK explained this to me that units attempting to Land could be interecepted on the Ground, essentially a poor result on the rolls could make it too hazardous for the Dropships to Land just like opposing the move to Atmo. Once I read the rule on Interception, I began enforcing the Mid-Level unit restriction because I was initially facing full regiments opposing my landings.
The fun thing about the "Landing" order is that it lets you move a ground unit directly to the planetary surface - even if it started the round in the Jump Point theater (which is what happened in the example scenario - Stone's Commandos had went directly from the JP to the Surface in the previous round). The transport unit that carries it tags along to Atmo/Orbit if it isn't already there. The ability of the Landing order to do a "two step move" is what differentiates it from Advance/Withdraw. Of course, this is balanced by the fact that Landing doesn't have A/W's exemption from the "one order per theater" rule, so only one ground unit can be put on the surface this way each round.
DK's point about using units in the Surface theater to attempt to intercept the landing ground unit. This is an operational maneuver that I had not considered when I wrote the rules, but I like it! Of course, battle size limits still apply as you noted, but that gives an important new option to defenders. In fluff terms, I suppose, such an order would essentially represent a counterattack against the Lander's "beachhead zone" with ground forces, which totally makes sense. All the more reason to invest in the Airborne Troops unit improvement :)
Quote from: Dave Baughman on December 01, 2010, 05:13:39 AM
DSA Orders, Op Round 2
Jump Point: No Units
Atmo/Orbit: Aerospace Support -- elements of Stone's Hellcats (2x Light ASF squadrons A+B, V/R, 12 FP), No Orders -- The Belle Lee Express
Surface: Recon Raid -- elements of Stone's Commandos (1x Light 'Mech Coy A, V/R, 14 FP)
From the sequences listed, you're doing several rolls combined that I was doing seperate such as the Aero Support Roll at the same time as the Simple Resolution.
Also I was unaware that victory points were done by theater as shown in ths example.
Arguably they could still be done seperately, but there's no downside to combining the (after all, once orders are declared, they can't be 'cancelled' due to a bad support roll or whatnot. Either rolling them all at once or rolling them each in their own post would be fine.
VP are intended to be done by theater; if they are done for the whole system, you can get some funky interactions with Final Assault, where ground forces can end up being able to execute FA due to victory points accrued in the JP and/or Atmo/Orbit theaters while their LZ was being cleared. Likewise, the outcome of ground action on the surface shouldn't influence the ability to use Final Assault and/or Pursuit in the JP or the Orbitals.
I'm looking at the following, and was there a purpose to the Raid? Does the successful round of combat yeild a result, or just to have combat?
The actual result of a raid is based on what order was executed. Its possible to use raid intensity for any order - even just the plain vanilla "battle" order (in which case it would be just for combat... I suppose a Clan trial force that knows they won't be granted safcon might attempt such a thing).
In this particular case, the order used was Recon Raid, which reveals information about the enemy defenses if successful. You'll note in a lot of the posts, only unit names are given. There are only two times in the normal combat sequence a unit's "full identity" is revealed:
- When that unit declares a Attack, Defense, or Support order
- When a unit's damage status is reported during the after-action report
If you look through the fight one thing you may notice is that the Stoner' transport unit, "The Belle Lee Express" never posts her FP or even what type of unit she is, since she never actually goes into combat and since she is only using Move orders.
In many combat threads I've read, a lot of avoidable free intelligence gets given out. I'd definitely recommend that everyone who has questions about exactly how much has to be declared review pages 35-38 of the manual. Most of the time, only a unit's name needs to be disclosed.
Quote from: Dave Baughman on December 01, 2010, 05:21:13 AM
DSA Aerospace my contribute up to 60% of the enemy's FP (7 FP after rounding)
After-action report
DSA committed 14 FP + 7 FP of support
WOB committed 11 FP
DSA lost 3 FP
WOB lost 4 FP
No units were destroyed
WOB elements of 14th Division (Medium Level III, R/R 51 FP) SURVIVES with 47 FP
DSA elements of Stone's Commandos (Light Company A, V/R 14 FP) SURVIVES with 12 FP
DSA elements of Stone's Hellcats (2x Light Squadron A+B, V/R 12 FP) SURVIVES with 11 FP
Total Damage this Round: 7 FP
Neither side sustained enough damage to benefit from battlefield repair.
Neither side earned a critical event.
DSA scores 36 points
WOB scores 14 points
DSA Decisive Victory
Victory Points in this theater: DSA 3, WOB 0
Additionall, DSA learns the complete details of all units in the star system.
I just wanted to verify that in regards to Salvage recovery, I was advised that the "Objective Raid" acquisition of the available Salvage is for a % of the actual salvage based on the standard damage roll chart, not the Curved Chart, and after the last rules clarification regarding critical events, I think we've been putting too much of the pool available because we've been including the potential salvage from the Raid Turn in the possible salvage picked up that round.
The way the Salvage Mission version of Objective Raid was intended to work was that it "gained control" over a percentage of the current salvage pool. At the end of the operation, the curved chart would still need to be consulted to find out how much of that FP turned into resource points. The SR chart is used to determine how much of the current pool is stolen, but the curved table is still used to determine how much converts to RP at the end of the op.
Salvage in general is one aspect of the rules that is written kind of opaquely and probably will need an eratta post in the rules thread eventually to concretely lay out how it works and avoid further confusion.
Quote from: Dave Baughman on December 01, 2010, 05:45:33 AM
WOB recovers 40% (7 RP) of the potential salvage.
QuoteDSA did 3 points of damage to a 16 point formation, destroying 18.75%; this correlates to 19 points. Conversely, WOB did 4 points of damage to a 12-point formation, destroying 33.3...% -- 33 points.
I was dividing damage done by damage done to get my %. I'll be using the proper method from now on.
QuoteThe ability of the Landing order to do a "two step move" is what differentiates it from Advance/Withdraw. Of course, this is balanced by the fact that Landing doesn't have A/W's exemption from the "one order per theater" rule, so only one ground unit can be put on the surface this way each round.
Understood.
QuoteAll the more reason to invest in the Airborne Troops unit improvement
Especially if you have a weak Dropship RAT
Quotethe order used was Recon Raid
Missed that part :P I see it now in OP2.
QuoteSalvage in general is one aspect of the rules that is written kind of opaquely and probably will need an eratta post in the rules thread eventually to concretely lay out how it works and avoid further confusion.
The way the current rules are, there's not much salvage out there. We've had some big battles with hundreds of potential salvage yield practically nothing.
when I put together the Salvage system, my intention was that on an average fight (i.e. all battles involve 10 points or more damage to each side, salvage roll is a 7, and neither ST nor Critical Events 7 and 11 come into play) that 25% of the damage would be recovered; 10% in battelfield repair and the other 15% deferred until the end of the operation in the form of pool salvage. Overall the range would be from 10% - 90% depending on the salvage roll.
To use FGC as a compare/contrast, and ignoring the 50% Zellbrigen incentive, Operational salvage recovery averages 27% (10% B.R., 17% deferred) with a disribution range of 17-32% +/- 5% based on the order type being used.
So I think its actually pretty arguable that FP and FGC salvage levels are similar, just that FP presents the possibility of much more deviation at the 'edges' of the bell curve.
(fun fact: the ST unit improvement, Crits 7 and 11, combined with a good salvage roll at the end can actually result in more being recovered than was put on the field in the first place.)
While the overall % chance for salvage is around 25%, it's more like high stakes gambling where the chart is slanted for an overall chance to earn less then 25% of 64% and a 36% chance to really high yield returns. Plus the odds to wind up with 0-5% is 36%. Compared to the worst results in the FGC where the lowest you could get was 7% (2d6: 1 + 1 = 2 + 5) for Raids. Granted the highest you could get was 27% for an average of 17% on standard battle oders, +/- 5% for operation type.
I'm not asking for a rules change, just pointing out that in practice, the average rolls were lower and my math did not count on the critical possibilities. I've only seen the salvage crit applied twice.
The warship battle on Misery was an example of the high's and lows of this rule. OP4 Yielded 60% of 278 (119), OP 5, 20% of 219 (44), OP6, 5% of 106 (5). But I'd say on average the Salvage rolls have been low%. :P We were lucky to get the %'s in that order.
I definitely agree with your math and your assessment that Salvage is a risky gamble. Part of me wants to say that's a good thing, since it makes the old "100% salvage repair" trick that we often see in FGC much less reliable.
For those who are curious, here are the odds of the "Salvage Roulette" game (again, this is talking about overall recovery over the course of the entire operation, assumes no ST or critical events, and includes 10% reflecting battlefield repair).
10% Salvage -- 8% chance
15% Salvage -- 19% chance
20% Salvage -- 14% chance
25% Salvage -- 16% chance
30% Salvage -- 14% chance
40% Salvage -- 11% chance
50% Salvage -- 8% chance
70% Salvage -- 6% chance
90% Salvage -- 3% chance
ooh, how interesting. The curved table is more diabolical than I thought, and is subtly rigged to "make the house win" - 15%, not 25% is actually the most likely single outcome. Of course, that's a little deceptive, since if we look at the whole continuum of outcomes, defining 25+ or better as a "good outcome" and 20% or less as a "bad outcome" we get a 41% chance of a 'bad outcome' and 58% chance of a 'good outcome,' so in terms of the big picture the chart still slightly favors a return of 25% or better.