[Example Operation] Objective Raid

[Dave Baughman]

when I put together the Salvage system, my intention was that on an average fight (i.e. all battles involve 10 points or more damage to each side, salvage roll is a 7, and neither ST nor Critical Events 7 and 11 come into play) that 25% of the damage would be recovered; 10% in battelfield repair and the other 15% deferred until the end of the operation in the form of pool salvage. Overall the range would be from 10% - 90% depending on the salvage roll.

To use FGC as a compare/contrast, and ignoring the 50% Zellbrigen incentive, Operational salvage recovery averages 27% (10% B.R., 17% deferred) with a disribution range of 17-32% +/- 5% based on the order type being used.

So I think its actually pretty arguable that FP and FGC salvage levels are similar, just that FP presents the possibility of much more deviation at the 'edges' of the bell curve.

(fun fact: the ST unit improvement, Crits 7 and 11, combined with a good salvage roll at the end can actually result in more being recovered than was put on the field in the first place.)

[Fatebringer]

While the overall % chance for salvage is around 25%, it's more like high stakes gambling where the chart is slanted for an overall chance to earn less then 25% of 64% and a 36% chance to really high yield returns. Plus the odds to wind up with 0-5% is 36%. Compared to the worst results in the FGC where the lowest you could get was 7% (2d6: 1 + 1 = 2 + 5) for Raids. Granted the highest you could get was 27% for an average of 17% on standard battle oders, +/- 5% for operation type.

I'm not asking for a rules change, just pointing out that in practice, the average rolls were lower and my math did not count on the critical possibilities. I've only seen the salvage crit applied twice.

The warship battle on Misery was an example of the high's and lows of this rule. OP4 Yielded 60% of 278 (119), OP 5, 20% of 219 (44), OP6, 5% of 106 (5). But I'd say on average the Salvage rolls have been low%. We were lucky to get the %'s in that order.

[Dave Baughman]

I definitely agree with your math and your assessment that Salvage is a risky gamble. Part of me wants to say that's a good thing, since it makes the old "100% salvage repair" trick that we often see in FGC much less reliable.

For those who are curious, here are the odds of the "Salvage Roulette" game (again, this is talking about overall recovery over the course of the entire operation, assumes no ST or critical events, and includes 10% reflecting battlefield repair).

10% Salvage -- 8% chance
15% Salvage -- 19% chance
20% Salvage -- 14% chance
25% Salvage -- 16% chance
30% Salvage -- 14% chance
40% Salvage -- 11% chance
50% Salvage -- 8% chance
70% Salvage -- 6% chance
90% Salvage -- 3% chance

ooh, how interesting. The curved table is more diabolical than I thought, and is subtly rigged to "make the house win" - 15%, not 25% is actually the most likely single outcome. Of course, that's a little deceptive, since if we look at the whole continuum of outcomes, defining 25+ or better as a "good outcome" and 20% or less as a "bad outcome" we get a 41% chance of a 'bad outcome' and 58% chance of a 'good outcome,' so in terms of the big picture the chart still slightly favors a return of 25% or better.